Strategic Market Timing

In September 1986 and again in September 1987, the stock market plunged between 140 and 150 points within a two-day period. In both cases the sharp declines were preceded by long-term advances, and on the surface, the market conditions appeared to be exactly the same. Yet, in 1986, Robert M. Bowker advised readers of his Business Cycle Monitor to buy-and the market subsequently rose. In 1987, he advised them to sell all stocks immediately-and the market underwent the worst crash in over half a century. How did the author know that the fundamental market conditions were not the same? It wasn't by means of vague, long-term theories or time cycles: nor was it done through tedious market charting techniques.