Human Security Report 2009/2010: The Causes of Peace and the Shrinking Costs of War

The Human Security Report 2009/2010 argues that long-term trends are reducing the risks of both international and civil wars. The Report, which is funded by the governments of Canada, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom and is published by Oxford University Press, also examines recent developments that suggest the world is becoming a more dangerous place. These include the following:

--Four of the world's five deadliest conflicts--in Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Somalia--involve Islamist insurgents.
--Over a quarter of the conflicts that started between 2004 and 2008 have been associated with Islamist political violence.
--In the post-Cold War period a greater percentage of the world's countries have been involved in wars than at any time since the end of World War II.
--Armed conflict numbers increased by 25 percent from 2003 to 2008 after declining for more than ten years.
--Intercommunal and other conflicts that do not involve a government increased by more than 100 percent from 2007 to 2008.
--The impact of the global economic crisis on developing countries risks generating political instability and increasing the risk of war.
--Wars have become "intractable"--i.e., more difficult to bring to an end.