Critical Thinking and Intelligence Analysis (Occasional Paper)

Author David Moore makes a powerful argument that analysts who possess critical thinking skills are better able to cope with the complexities of a post-Cold War world than those who are not. Although technology can assist analysts by cataloging and presenting data, information and evidence in new ways, it cannot do the analysis for them. To be most effective, analysts need an overarching, reflective framework to add structured reasoning to sound, intuitive thinking. Critical thinking provides such a framework and goes further, positively influencing the entire intelligence analysis process. This paper defines critical thinking in the context of intelligence analysis, explains how it influences the entire intelligence process, explores how it toughens the art of intelligence analysis, suggests how it may be taught, and deduces how analysts can be persuaded to adopt this habit.