Stochastic Strong Ground Motion Simulations: Validation, Limitation and Sensitivity Analyses

Assessment of potential ground motions in seismically active regions is essential for purposes of seismic design and analysis. In regions of sparse or no strong ground motion records, ground motion simulations provide physics-based synthetic records. These simulations provide not only the earthquake engineering parameters but also give insight into the mechanisms of the earthquakes. This book presents strong ground motion simulations in three regions of intense seismic activity, namely Düzce, L'Aquila and Erzincan. In this study, stochastic finite-fault simulation methodology is utilized to determine regional seismic source, propagation and site parameters through validation of the simulations against the records. The limitations of the method are also investigated. Furthermore, a parametric sensitivity study is performed to observe the variations in results to small perturbations in input parameters. Results of this study confirm that stochastic finite-fault simulation method is an effective technique for generating realistic synthetic records of large earthquakes in near field regions. It is possible to use the results in seismic response analyses of engineering structures.