Scenario Development and Costing in Health Care: Methodological Accomplishments and Practical Guidelines

After ten years of scenario research, the STG offers this report as an evaluation of the methodology which has evolved under its auspices. In this context, attention has primarily been devoted to the utility of the end product and the reliability of the supporting models and model computations. The practical value of scenario research will increase when the ideas of the future which have been developed not only cover the state of (parts of) public health and health care, but also address the costs involved. Assessments based on cost estimations are, however, only useful if they are based on reliable methods and can also be generalised. This handbook offers future researchers a global step by step plan, interlaced with a selected variety of examples and practical suggestions to enhance the usefulness of scenario projects. These guidelines are not, of course, intended to act as a restrictive straightjacket. On the contrary, they are offered as a standard tool to which every user can add supplementary instruments.