Positioning Analysis in Commodity Markets: Bridging Fundamental and Technical Analysis

"Positioning Analysis" as an area of research that provides a powerful framework to better understand price dynamics, risk, sentiment and behaviour in commodity markets.

Based on standard positioning data and bridging aspects of fundamental and technical analysis, the approach builds on how certain types of positioning patterns, in the context of changes in variables like price, curve structure, fundamentals such as inventory, seasonal factors, exchange rates, changes in the broader macroeconomic environment and the levels of risk and uncertainty in the market, can be used to develop models, indicators and analyses. These lead to the generation of robust trading signals, that can be either used directly, or integrated into a variety of different trading, investment and risk management programs to enhance performance. 

Positioning data shows us who is trading what, and how much they are trading; Positioning analysis shows us what can happen when they trade too much, and how changes in specific variables affect positioning and impact price...