The 2011 Import and Export Market for Hydraulic Turbines, Water Wheels, and Their Parts in Bulgaria

On the demand side, exporters and strategic planners focusing on hydraulic turbines, water wheels, and their parts in Bulgaria face a number of questions. Which countries are supplying hydraulic turbines, water wheels, and their parts to Bulgaria? How important is Bulgaria compared to others in terms of the entire global and regional market? How much do the imports of hydraulic turbines, water wheels, and their parts vary from one country of origin to another in Bulgaria? On the supply side, Bulgaria also exports hydraulic turbines, water wheels, and their parts. Which countries receive the most exports from Bulgaria? How are these exports concentrated across buyers? What is the value of these exports and which countries are the largest buyers?

This report was created for strategic planners, international marketing executives and import/export managers who are concerned with the market for hydraulic turbines, water wheels, and their parts in Bulgaria. With the globalization of this market, managers can no longer be contented with a local view. Nor can managers be contented with out-of-date statistics which appear several years after the fact. I have developed a methodology, based on macroeconomic and trade models, to estimate the market for hydraulic turbines, water wheels, and their parts for those countries serving Bulgaria via exports, or supplying from Bulgaria via imports. It does so for the current year based on a variety of key historical indicators and econometric models.

In what follows, Chapter 2 begins by summarizing where Bulgaria fits into the world market for imported and exported hydraulic turbines, water wheels, and their parts. The total level of imports and exports on a worldwide basis, and those for Bulgaria in particular, is estimated using a model which aggregates across over 150 key country markets and projects these to the current year. From there, each country represents a percent of the world market. This market is served from a number of competitive countries of origin. Based on both demand- and supply-side dynamics, market shares by country of origin are then calculated across each country market destination. These shares lead to a volume of import and export values for each country and are aggregated to regional and world totals. In doing so, we are able to obtain maximum likelihood estimates of both the value of each market and the share that Bulgaria is likely to receive this year. From these figures, rankings are calculated to allow managers to prioritize Bulgaria compared to other major country markets. In this way, all the figures provided in this report are forecasts that can be combined with internal information sources for strategic planning purposes.