A Post Mortem on the 2014 Elections: Implications for 2016 and Beyond

The performance of the Democratic Party in 2014 was one of the most pathetic in the history of elections. The Democrats were swamped at the polls two years after President Obama won reelection despite an improving economy and progress in implementing the Affordable Care Act.

The Party made four major mistakes:

First, President Obama did not actively campaign in many states. President Obama’s vote totals far exceeded the vote totals of 2014 Democrats. It is likely that appearances by President Obama could have made a difference in several races.

Second, the Democrats spent a lot of money on unwinnable races especially but not exclusively the Senate race in Kentucky and Georgia and the gubernatorial race in Texas. Republicans have successfully nationalized red-state elections. Democrats need to recognize this reality and reallocate resources towards states and Districts where their efforts have proven successful in recent elections.

Third, (and possibly most importantly) the Democrats are not committing enough money or political capital to competitive House contests. Many political analysts claim that most House Seats are safely in Republican or Democratic hands and that turnover in the House is unlikely to occur. This claim is erroneous. The data presented in this paper indicates that the Democrats are not putting forward the effort needed to retake the House.

Fourth, several Democratic nominees picked by party leaders were ineffective on the campaign trail and unpopular with he base. The Democratic Party needs more intra-party competition and debate prior to nominating people at all levels of office.