Department of Transportation Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) Service Demand 2015-2035

This report assesses opportunities, risks, and challenges attendant to future development and deployment of UAS within the National Airspace System (NAS) affecting UAS forecast growth from 2015 to 2035. Analysis of four key areas is performed: technology, mission needs, economics, and existing or anticipated challenges to routine use in NAS operations. Forecast effects of emerging technologies as well as anticipating new technological innovations in areas of airframes, powerplants, sensors, communication, command and control systems, and information technology and processing are evaluated. Anticipated mission needs include intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR), as well as new areas such as stores delivery, cargo transport, search and rescue, and pilot augmentation; example business case models are developed for each of these areas. Challenges to routine UAS usage in the NAS include: absence of legislation and regulations for safe flight in integrated airspace; pilot training and certification; regulatory, policy, and procedural issues; social issues, such as privacy and nuisance concerns; environmental issues, such as noise and emissions; and safety.

Provided these challenges are largely mitigated, the following are projections of UAS fleet size by user in 2035: Department of Defense ~14,000, with additional ~5,000 having optional pilot augmentation (Air Force ~3,500; Navy + Marines ~2,500; Army ~10,000); Public Agencies (Federal, State, & Local) ~70,000. Total UAS vehicles will approach ~250,000 by 2035, of which ~175,000 will be in the commercial marketplace. UAS operations are expected to surpass manned aircraft operations, for both military and commercial domains, by 2035.

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1. Technology
The global defense industry is currently investing heavily in research and development, which has led to the development of technologies to enhance the endurance, survivability, and usability of UAS. This paper identifies five major UAS subsystem technologies that are seen as enablers for both military and commercial Unmanned Aircraft Vehicle (UAV) market development and growth: airframe; power plants; sensors; communication, command, and control (C3) systems; and information technologies (IT). Each of these subsystems will be driven at varying paces, depending upon research and development investments coupled with the financial viability of emerging markets. Some of these technologies, such as IT, are rapidly developing because of the high growth in user demand and the development of web-based services.
Some of the many mission characteristics and requirements that will drive future UAS development include: light weight (composite structures), long endurance, high payload carrying capacity, and interchangeability between standardized payload modules. Continuing microminiaturization, sensor fusion, C3 standardization, and infrastructure integration will result in smaller and more capable UAVs. They will also be more efficient and less costly. In other words, more capability at less cost encourages more market growth.

2. Missions

While technology enables, it is the cost effective delivery of capability that meets the need that drives UAS markets. Identification of mission needs is foundational to forecasting future types and number of UAS. This report considers major mission requirements to continue to be in intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR), as well as new areas such as stores delivery, cargo transport, search and rescue, and pilot augmentation. Mission need is tightly coupled with technology, meaning that technological developments are mission enablers in the same way that mission requirements drive technological changes.