Hosni Mubarak and the Future of Democracy

Some things seem to go on so long that we take them for granted. Egypt’s Mubarak regime has that timeless quality, but in truth it nears the end. Presidential elections are scheduled for 2011, if not sooner, and the aged Mubarak will likely step aside. His son Gamal waits in the wings, seemingly alone. But the regime comes under many pressures, both foreign and domestic, to bring democratic reforms and free and fair elections to Egypt. A hereditary succession would be highly suspect, and in all probability destabilizing and illegitimate. Furthermore, as a key Middle East power and crucial US ally, Egypt’s transfer of power has profound implications for the region and must be managed with the utmost care. Meanwhile, the threat of an Islamist regime lurks in the background, as the Muslim Brotherhood has achieved a grudging parity with the weakening Mubarak regime since 2005. The push for democratic reform is thus tempered by the perceived need for stability. Meanwhile, the Egyptian people long for democracy, and the thought of a Gamal Mubarak regime stretching across two more decades is crushing to contemplate.