Global Trends 2005: An Owner's Manual for the Next Decade

Michael Mazarr, an adjunct researcher at the Washington, D.C.-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, tries to make sense of the end of the 20th century, identifying six fundamental trends reshaping the U.S. and the world and adopting what he calls "cautious optimism" in predicting what lies ahead. While Mazarr expects little to change in the developed Western world, he predicts instability in Africa, the Middle East, and India due to rapid population growth, disease, food and water shortages, and cultural conflicts. Advances in science and technology, he continues, will fuel rapid social change and create a global culture of free-market economies--unleashing instability in the process. World economies will increasingly be based on information, reorganizing the nature of work and increasing the gap between rich and poor; the globalization of world trade, economic activity, and communication will be met by a simultaneous rise in tribalism, and Mazarr predicts the conflict between the two will be "one of the major hallmarks of the coming decade." He also projects that a transformation of authority may result in a collapse of public confidence in all social authorities, and suggests that all of these trends will result in a worldwide feeling that things have never been so good, yet also leave people decidedly negative and pessimistic about the future. The first decade of the 21st century, Mazarr writes, will see "the most profound transition in human history," a period of both opportunity and risk. "Fate has provided us with the raw material of a new renaissance in human society, but it is up to us to make that renaissance a reality." --Linda Killian