The Democratic Trend Phenomenon: The Predictability of the Democratic Popular Vote for President

For over three decades our country’s electorate exhibited the effects from a major political realignment. The consequence of this realignment was a little known or possibly unknown phenomenon pertaining to the popular vote for president. The phenomenon was that the popular vote for the Democratic candidate for president trended in a predictable pattern from 1972 to 2000 (if the election of 1976 is treated as an outlier). In fact, the trend was so predictable that the popular vote for the Democratic candidates, in the elections of 1992, 1996, and 2000, could have all been determined in 1988 with an accuracy of 99% or better. This extraordinary predictability has been deemed by this author as, “The Democratic Trend Phenomenon.” This book describes the cause of the phenomenon, measures its predictability, and outlines the future effects.