Projections of net migration to the United States: a CBO paper

Original publisher: [Washington, D.C.] : Congress of the United States, Congressional Budget Office, [2006] OCLC Number: (OCoLC)70827492 Subject: United States -- Emigration and immigration. Excerpt: ... PROJECTIONS OF NET MIGRATION TO THE UNITED STATES 7 Figure 3. The Number of Immigrants Admitted by Fiscal Year ( Thousands of people ) 2,000 1,500 1,000 Total Adjustment a of Status New Arrivals 500 0 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Source: Congressional Budget Office based on Department of Homeland Security, Office of Immigration Statistics, 2004 Yearbook of Immigration Statistics ( 2004 ), Table 4 ( Immigrants ), available at www.uscis.gov / graphics / shared / statistics / yearbook. a. Refers to people already living in the United States when admitted as legal permanent residents. members of the baby-boom generation begin to retire. The panel recommended that assumptions about net mi-gration be based on an analysis of historical trends, not Other factors might dampen immigration. For instance, on current laws or policies. It noted that only one compo-heightened security concerns following the September 11 nent of the trustees ' projections - legal admissions ex-terrorist attacks might slow the process of admitting im-cluding refugees and asylum-seekers - is based on current migrants and refugees and lead to increased border en-law. And even that flexible cap of 675,000 admissions forcement. Nonetheless, the panel noted that the average does not apply to the largest single category of legal im-growth of the annual net inflow had been about 4 percent migrants: immediate relatives of U.S. citizens. For that since 1950 and concluded that, on balance, there was group, there is no numerical restriction on the number of no strong reason to anticipate a break in that trend. The people admitted. Moreover, the number of people actu-ally admitted has exhibited significant variability from continuation of that rising trend is at odds with the trust-ye...