- Jonathan Bales, Author
- Table of Contents
Chapter 1: The Most In-Depth Introduction You'll Ever Read
- How to use scarcity at a position to acquire maximum value
- How to use your opponents' beliefs to get the best players
- Why predictability is more important than projected points
Chapter 2: Why Week-to-Week Consistency is (Almost) Worthless
- Why you should start a nearly identical lineup each week
- How to create tiered rankings that implement players' risk
- When and how to take gambles during your draft
Chapter 3: Season-to-Season Consistency: Why It Matters and How to Use it
- How stats like rushing, receiving, and passing yards/touchdowns translate from one season to another
- Why defenses and kickers are almost entirely unpredictable
- Why a quarterback or top-tier running back should be your first-round selection
- Why tight ends are the most consistent players in fantasy football
Chapter 4: Tier-ing Up: How to Create Basic Projections and Tiered Rankings
- A basic formula to create projections
- How to make tiers in your rankings
- Why you should almost never take the best player available on your board (for real)
- Why drafting near the end of a round is advantageous
Chapter 5: More on Position Scarcity
- Why Aaron Rodgers and Rob Gronkowski might be the perfect 1-2 combination
- Why you can grab quality wide receivers late
Chapter 6: Identifying Value: Regression, Randomness, and Running Backs
- How to identify undervalued players
- Why running backs with lots of carries aren't really being overworked or overvalued
- How to predict running backs' yards-per-carry
Chapter 7: Getting Bullish: What the Stock Market Can Teach Us About Fantasy Football
- How fantasy football is incredibly similar to the stock market (and what we can learn from the latter)
- Why a player's value can be different for different teams
- How to "buy low" and "sell high" during your draft
- How to utilize public perception
- Why your focus shouldn't be securing the most projected points with each pick, but rather "losing" the least
Chapter 8: The Ultimate Draft Plan: From Projections to Selections
- Specific formulas to project player stats
- How to factor league requirements into your rankings
- Sample breakdowns of Matt Ryan and Steve Smith
- How to create player power ratings and turn them into the ultimate big board
Chapter 9: Building the Ideal Fantasy Football Players
- Breaking down the ideal characteristics for QB, RB, WR, and TE
- How to use measurables to project players, especially rookies
- Why speed matters more for running backs than receivers
Chapter 10: Don't Mock Me: Oh, now wait. Go ahead.
- Taking you through two mock drafts I completed in March
- Notes on each pick
Chapter 11: Fantasy Football for Smart People: What the Experts Don't Want You to Know
- How to project players based on age
- Understanding historic rates of decline for each position
- How to predict performances using "similarity scores"
- Understanding risk and reward
Chapter 12: Fantasy Football for Smart People: How to Cash in on the Future of the Game
- How to manage your money in weekly fantasy football
- Understanding "juice"
- Picking the perfect entry fee size