Dynamical Modeling of the Onset of War

Physical science and technology (engineering) are fundamentally linked by the possibility of predictions: science tests itself and grows by making and checking predictions; technology relies on predictions and thus furthers the growth of the associated science. The political science of international relations is similarly associated with the "technology" of policy-making by governments and elites: the growth of the science is dependent upon its applicability for useful policy making. This work explores the applicability of predictability - based upon dynamical modelling, and the related concepts of chaos and complexity - to the understanding of international relations, with the hope that this will lead to insights into policy-making and hence the growth of the science of international relations.