Multivariate Analysis of the Effect of Graduate Education on Promotion to Army Lieutenant Colonel

The objective of this thesis is to estimate and explain the effects of graduate education and other factors on promotion to the rank of Lieutenant Colonel (O-5) in the US Army. Our focus was primarily on determining whether graduate education provides officers with higher promotion probabilities. Besides graduate education, data that were analyzed include basic demographic traits, the officers’ prior enlisted status, and their commissioning source information. The data used in this study were taken from the Active Duty Military Master File for fiscal years 1981 through 2001. This study develops multivariate logit regression and classification tree models to examine and explore the structure of the data sets. Both the regression models and the classification trees yielded positive results for the effect of graduate education on promotion. According to the regression model results, the odds ratio associated with graduate education is between 1.79 and 2.25. Military Academy and ROTC/Scholarship graduates have higher promotion probabilities than those from other sources, and married officers have higher rates than single officers. Additionally, age has a negative effect on promotion; that is, promotion probability decreases with age. Prior enlisted status, number of dependents, gender, race, and DOD primary occupation code do not seem to have statistically significant effects on promotion.