Exponential Change: What drives it? What does it tell us about the future?

Some technologies experience very rapid improvements or what we call "exponential" rates of improvement. Part I of this book explains why some technologies experiences these rapid rates of improvements while others do not. There are two main drivers of these improvements: 1) creating materials to better exploit physical phenomena and: 2) scaling. For example, Part I shows how improvements in batteries are driven by creating new materials, improvements in engines are driven by increases in scale, and improvements in integrated circuits are driven by reductions in scale. Some technologies directly experience these improvements while others experience them through having rapidly improving components in their systems. The second half of the book uses this knowledge of the drivers to examine the future. Using data on improvements for almost 100 technologies, Part II discusses the future of integrated circuits, MEMS, bio-electronics, many types of nanotechnology, new forms of lighting and displays, DNA sequencers and other aspects of health care, telecommunications, and superconductivity. This discussion will help readers envision new types of technological systems in which various technologies are combined in different ways.