The Norm Chronicles: Stories and numbers about danger by Blastland, Michael, Spiegelhalter, David (2014) Paperback

cover The Norm Chronicles: Stories and numbers about danger By Michael Blastland and David Spiegelhalter Risk is not an easy subject to understand. The theory is too abstract, and often too unpalatable, for people to be comfortable with. We are more frightened by rare risks over which we have no control than routine risks we face every day; a horrific but one-off event can seem more threatening than a less rare occurrence. Despite its rarity, child abduction by strangers is much more frightening to parents than the risks of road traffic accidents. People wish to be given straightforward answers, rather than be presented with hypothetical statistics and the workings of chance. Rather than discussing the theory, The Norm Chronicles provides a guide to "risk, chance, luck and coincidence" through the life of the eponymous Norm, chosen to be the average guy, from the cradle to the grave, examining the impact that his various choices have upon him. Along the way we also meet his friends Prudence, whose tendency to be risk averse can border upon the pathological, and the reckless Kelvin. When Norm spots an unattended bag on the tube, he considers the likelihoods and concludes that it is probably just forgotten luggage. By contrast, Prudence panics about the possibility of a bomb, while Kelvin steals the contents. And, although these are stories about the lives of fictional characters, they allow us to appreciate the odds behind hazards, and give us an intuitive understanding of what the statistics and probabilities really mean to our lives.