Uncontrolled: The Surprising Payoff of Trial-and-Error for Business, Politics, and Society

Entrepreneur and political commentator Jim Manzi argues for a radical new approach to our most pressing economic and social problems, using the scientific method - and its controlled experiments and skeptical mindset - to test what works in business and government. How do we know which social and economic policies work, which should be continued, and which should be changed? Jim Manzi argues that various methods have been attempted - except for controlled experimentation. Experiments provide the feedback loop that allows us, in certain limited ways, to identify error in our beliefs as a first step to correcting them. This technique goes by many names in different contexts (randomized control trials, etc). Randomized trials have shown, for example, that work requirements for welfare recipients have succeeded like nothing else in encouraging employment, that charter school vouchers have been successful in increasing educational attainment for underprivileged children, and that community policing has worked to reduce crime, but also that programmes which might be politically attractive, can often fail to attain their intended objectives. Business leaders can also use experiments to test decisions in a controlled, low-risk environment before investing precious resources in large-scale changes - the philosophy behind Manzi's own successful software company. In a powerfully and masterfully-argued book, Manzie shows us how the methods of science can be applied to social and economic policy in order to ensure progress and prosperity.