Reliability and Uncertainty Analyses in Hydraulic Design

Several recent major failures of engineering systems have raised public concern on the safety and reliability of engineering structures. Decades ago a quantitative evaluation of the reliability of structures was not possible. Engineers had to rely on the use of a safety factor which was determined mainly through experience and judgement. Recent advances in probability methods and in computers make it feasible to evaluate the contributions of various technologic and natural factors to the safety and reliability of structures. Since application of reliability analysis to hydraulic engineering covers a wide scope of sub-fields, this report, "Reliability and Uncertainty Analyses in Hydraulic Design", presents a glimpse of some of the topics pertinent to the design and safety of hydraulic structures. The first four papers discuss various techniques pertinent to reliability and uncertainty analyses. The next nine papers explore how these techniques can be applied to dam safety, coastal floods, and hydraulic structures. The report ends with a reprint of an article by Vrijling on the Eastern Scheldt Storm Surge Barrier of the Delta Project in the Netherlands and the use of reliability analysis for sewer design.