Endless Appetites: How the Commodities Casino Creates Hunger and Unrest

Q&A with Author Alan Bjerga
Author Alan Bjerga
Describe the "commodities casino" as you refer to it in the book.
The "commodities casino" is the result of a bunch of things that have come together at once to make world food prices swing up and down in ways that have hurt everyone and the world's poorest people most. Tighter food inventories, more volatile weather, big changes in oil prices that are a significant part of food costs, and the ability of commodity buyers and sellers to shift billions of dollars into and out of crop futures in an instant all have the potential to drive markets in directions that make it hard for consumers and farmers to meet their need for nutritious food.

To what do you attribute the volatility of food prices over the past five years?
A lot of it has to do with smaller surpluses reacting to unpredictable weather -- when you have less food available, markets get jumpier when there's bad news. The smaller surpluses are here for many reasons -- rising demand in countries that are growing quickly, governments moving away from stockpiling grains, more crops being used as energy sources. It takes away much of the buffer we used to have. Add to that new ways to buy and sell crop futures, and prices can start to move pretty fast.

What do you see happening over the next 5-10 years?
I would not be surprised a bit to see world food prices fall again, actually. That may seem to undercut the book, but it doesn't. Farmers have an amazing ability to meet demand, and in fact will overshoot those needs if they get a chance. But that's the problem. People outside agriculture see a good harvest and think that food problems are over when they aren't. Then a bad harvest hits a key region, prices go up, countries become unstable, and people suffer. That's the world we're living in, and the only way to smooth it out is to have more reliable supplies from more places.

What are some of the most pressing examples of food security issues we are seeing in the world today?
One of the most troubling trends right now is that parts of the world that are getting more and more urban are being supplied by rural areas that can't keep up with the growth. That means you have huge concentrations of people who are either highly dependent on food imports or on local growers whose harvests are entirely dependent on rain -- and rainfall seems to be getting more erratic. That trend isn't improving. The most frustrating problem beyond that is the persistence of famine. The world can feed itself, but it isn't happening, and for everyone's sake we need to do something about it. Are we really so self-absorbed that a billion people unnecessarily suffering doesn't deserve a response? It's not like we need to make massive changes, it's more about having a sustained focus and a common goal.

You say at the very beginning of the book, "To feed everyone, we need everyone." What does that mean?
It means you can fit the entire point of the book on a T-shirt! Was that the wrong answer? OK. What I mean is that two things fundamentally hold back the fight against hunger. One is people who simply don't care. The second is people who do, but then spend time bickering with other people who do, but don't agree on the details. That's counter-productive. As a journalist I've spoken to people from executive suites to food-aid distribution sites, and most people have reasonable perspectives and good intentions. We'd all be better off if we cut out the caricatures and found worked out our differences to further a goal we all should agree upon: making sure no one goes to bed hungry at night. Different solutions work for different situations. Some flexibility, trust and appreciation of one another is required, but given the stakes involved and the rewards we could get, I think humanity can pull it off.

I'm an optimist. I wouldn't have written this book if I weren't.