From the New Middle Ages to a New Dark Age: The Decline of the State and U.S. Strategy

National security policymakers are continuously challenged to ensure that the judgments and assumptions underlying policy, force posture, and provision are congruent with the international environment and the role the United States is playing within it. This has become problematic in the 21st century security environment characterized by complexity, connectivity, and rapid change. This analysis offers key insights into what is a shifting security environment and considers how the United States can best respond to it. Dr. Phil Williams argues that we have passed the zenith of the Westphalian state, which is now in long-term decline, and are already in what several observers have termed the New Middle Ages, characterized by disorder but not chaos. Dr. Williams suggests that both the relative and absolute decline in state power will not only continue but will accelerate, taking us into a New Dark Age where the forces of chaos could prove overwhelming. He argues that failed states are not an aberration but an indication of intensifying disorder, and suggests that the intersection of problems such as transnational organized crime, terrorism, and pandemics could intersect and easily create a tipping point from disorder into chaos. Dr. Williams suggests that analysts and policymakers are reluctant to acknowledge the pace and scope of state decline. He argues that continued assumptions about thecentral role and vitality of states—a phenomenon he terms “stateocentrism”— blinds us to emerging challenges. The exception is the Joint Operational Environment, which offers critically important insights into emerging challenges. Yet even this, Dr. Williams argues, focuses on defeating enemies rather than managing conditions of chaos vi and restoring order, and remains overly optimistic. He suggests that many of the problems which are proving particularly intractable in Iraq exemplify—albeit on a small scale—the kind of challenges associated with a New Dark Age. Against this background, Dr. Williams outlines the strengths and weaknesses of three major choices: preventive interventionism, disengagement and mitigation, and triage or selective interventionism. He suggests that for both a continuation of the current approach and for selective intervention, U.S. policymakers have to design a far more holistic approach to the exercise of power. In the future, for any substantial U.S. military intervention (by the United States acting alone or with allies) to have any chance of success will require what is termed in this monograph a trans-agency organizational structure. A whole of government approach cannot simply replicate in the field the institutional rivalries and divergences prevalent in Washington. Military forces, diplomats, reconstruction specialists, and legal experts must be integrated into one organization designed to assist a target state in reestablishing its authority, legitimacy, and effectiveness. Whether or not one agrees with the gloomy prognosis of this analysis, the author identifies trends and potential challenges that will have an impact on U.S. strategy and military posture in the next few decades and offers some suggestions about possible responses.