Whither Haiti?

As this study goes to press, the U.N. Mission in Haiti is in the process of being extended for 4 months. The size of the force will be sharply reduced. The central role played thus far by the United States will be assumed by Canada, which, along with Argentina, Pakistan and Bangladesh, will provide some 1,900 troops to the operation. The question that all this poses is whether the progress that Haiti has made these past 18 months will continue, especially after the mission pulls out altogether (presumably after June 1996). In the following report, Dr. Donald E. Schulz looks at the prospects for political stability, democratization, and socioeconomic development. His conclusions are sobering. While by no means dismissing the possibility that Haiti can "make it," he presents a portrait of the imposing obstacles that must still be overcome and a detailed discussion of the things that could go wrong. In a nutshell, he argues that without a much greater willingness on the part of the United States and the international community to "stay the course" in terms of providing long-term security and socioeconomic aid, Haiti is unlikely to make a successful transition to a stable, democratic, economically modernizing nation. (Even with continuing assistance, the outlook will be problematic.) He argues that unless the United States and other foreign donors recognize this and do what is necessary to give the Haitian experiment a better chance to succeed, the "tactical success" that has been enjoyed so far will sooner or later be transformed into a "strategic failure." His policy recommendations, in particular, deserve close scrutiny.