Telecommunication in the 21st Century: The Real and the Virtual

Michel Feneyrol, director of the research and development division of France Telecom, is reversing the way a lot of people forecast what the future holds for telecommunications. The usual approach is to try to determine what will be technically feasible, then figure out what the new technology makes possible. Feneyrol does precisely the opposite. He tries to figure out what products and services people will desire and then determines which ones are most likely to be practical and which are most likely to remain dreams. For example, Feneyrol points out that figuring services based on technical practicalities is what has brought us video phones, teleconferences, and other services that are considered extremely impressive; however, consumers have yet to line up to buy them. Feneyrol also notes that just because services are unwanted today, that doesn't mean that the demand for them won't increase as consumers' desires and expectations develop over the years.

This is not a book about a gee-whiz future. It's a hard-headed pragmatic look beyond the hype at what can realistically be expected. Feneyrol doesn't do his forecasting through the eyes of theory, but through the eyes of a technology-savvy communication industry professional. As he talks about the possibilities the future holds, he pauses to consider the technical innovations that will be required to make them happen.

Although this book is not beyond the understanding of the nontechnical, a basic understanding of telecommunication nuts and bolts is helpful since Feneyrol doesn't hesitate to get down into the circuits to make his point. Fortunately, he provides a full glossary for those who might get stuck on the terms. Feneyrol covers the social and technical trends in communications services for home and business, advances in communication networks, increases in mobile communication, and upcoming technologies and techniques.