ELECTRICITY MARKET CLEARING PRICE FORECASTING IN A DEREGULATED MARKET: A Neural Network Approach

Electricity market clearing price (MCP) forecasting is a prediction of future electricity price based on given forecast of electricity demand, temperature, sunshine, fuel cost, precipitation and other related factors. This book presents a mid-term electricity MCP forecasting technique utilizing neural network approach. Forecasting of mid-term MCP is essential for decision making, scheduling and bidding strategy planning purposes. However, forecasting mid-term electricity market clearing price is a very complex non-linear problem. Neural network based approaches can be effective forecasting tools in an environment with high degree of non-linearity and uncertainty. Two new artificial neural networks have been proposed and reported in this book that can be utilized to forecast mid-term daily peak and mid- term hourly electricity market clearing price. Two situations have been considered; market clearing price forecasting under real deregulated electric market and under deregulated electric market with perfect competition.