The Position of a Weak State in an Unstable Region: The Case of Lebanon (Emirates Lecture Series, Volume 44)

INTRODUCTION The prospects for long-term reconciliation within weak states such as Lebanon have been strongly influenced by the recent dramatic changes in the global system, dramatized by the September 11, 2001 attack on the United States. These changes have resulted in security strategy becoming globalized, with the fight against terrorism assuming top priority in the execution of the foreign policy of the world's only superpower, the United States. Concepts like preventive diplomacy and preemptive strikes are replacing the former approaches of deterrence and containment. Nevertheless, the emerging global security system, and US hegemony over it, is being challenged by intra-state conflicts, which have surpassed those of inter-state nature in both number and intensity. Thus, the crucial problem facing all policy makers today is how to achieve stability in countries experiencing such internal conflict and instability. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) identifies four factors that impact on the emerging global security system. In addition to the spread of information technology, the other three aspects are the inability of a number of weak states to control developments in their territory, external security dynamics, and the growing importance of non-military aspects of state security. These elements are of particular relevance to the understanding of Lebanon's predicament...