Risk Analysis in Capital Investment (HBR Classic)

Originally published in the January/February 1964 issue of HBR, this article presents an innovative approach for calculating the risks entailed in projects such as modernizing a plant or launching new products. The technique determines a frequency distribution for each of the factors influencing the rate of return and focuses on specific combinations of variables. Computer runs and data comparisons are an inherent part of the analysis. This approach allows management to understand the nature of the data being used, and thereby results in wiser investment decisions. The retrospective commentary is an informative update on the subject of risk analysis.