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Output gaps and inflation in Mainland China [An article from: China Economic Review]
Book Details
Author(s)S. GERLACH, W. PENG
PublisherElsevier
ISBN / ASINB000P6NSB2
ISBN-13978B000P6NSB6
AvailabilityAvailable for download now
MarketplaceUnited States 🇺🇸
Description
This digital document is a journal article from China Economic Review, published by Elsevier in 2006. The article is delivered in HTML format and is available in your Amazon.com Media Library immediately after purchase. You can view it with any web browser.
Description:
We estimate output gaps using three methods for Mainland China on annual data spanning 1982-2003. The estimates are similar and appear to co-move with inflation. Standard Phillips curves, however, do not fit the data well. This may reflect the omission of some important variable(s) such as the effect of price deregulation, trade liberalisation and/or changes in the exchange rate regime. We re-estimate the Phillips curves assuming that there is an unobserved variable that follows an AR(2) process. The modified model fits the data much better and accounts for some of the surprising features of the simple Phillips curve estimates.
Description:
We estimate output gaps using three methods for Mainland China on annual data spanning 1982-2003. The estimates are similar and appear to co-move with inflation. Standard Phillips curves, however, do not fit the data well. This may reflect the omission of some important variable(s) such as the effect of price deregulation, trade liberalisation and/or changes in the exchange rate regime. We re-estimate the Phillips curves assuming that there is an unobserved variable that follows an AR(2) process. The modified model fits the data much better and accounts for some of the surprising features of the simple Phillips curve estimates.
