Modeling urban expansion scenarios by coupling cellular automata model and system dynamic model in Beijing, China [An article from: Applied Geography]

This digital document is a journal article from Applied Geography, published by Elsevier in 2006. The article is delivered in HTML format and is available in your Amazon.com Media Library immediately after purchase. You can view it with any web browser.

Description:
Spatially explicit urban expansion models that can trace urban development in the past and predict the expansion scenarios in the future are indispensable for examining urban planning policies. This paper demonstrates a new urban expansion scenario (UES) model by coupling one 'bottom-up' cellular automata (CA)-based model and one 'top-down' system dynamics (SD)-based model. By implementing the UES model in Beijing, the urban evolution from 1991 to 2004 was simulated and the UESs from 2004 to 2020 were predicted. The results suggest that a dilemma of urban expansion versus limited water resource and environment deterioration exists. Dealing with such a dilemma remains a challenge for the local government.