Evolving dairy markets in Asia: Recent findings and implications [An article from: Food Policy]

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This paper is an overview of important findings regarding the ongoing evolution of Asian dairy markets based on a series of new economic investigations. These investigations provide systematic empirical foundations to assess Asian dairy markets with their new consumption patterns, changing industries, and trade prospects under different domestic and trade policy regimes, with four case studies (China, India, Japan, and Korea), a prospective analysis of future regional patterns of consumption, and a policy analysis of trade liberalization of Asian dairy markets. The overview distills the findings of these new investigations and integrates them in the earlier economic literature; it draws policy implications, and identifies lessons for countries outside of Asia, especially for emerging exporters in Latin America. State University, Ames, IA. On the web at: http://www.card.iastate.edu/publications/DBS/PDFFiles/05wp401.pdf], and Korea [Lee, H., Sumner, D.A., Ahn, B.I., 2005. A component based analysis of policy change on Korean dairy: model, data and simulations. AIC Working Paper. Available from: http://www.aic.ucdavis.edu], and two other papers looking at recent and future regional patterns of consumption [Dong, F., 2005. The outlook for Asian dairy markets: the role of demographics, income, and prices. CARD Working Paper 05-WP 399, June, Iowa State University, Ames. Available from: http://www.card.iastate.edu/publications/DBS/PDFFiles/05wp399.pdf] and integration of Asian dairy markets in world markets through trade policy reforms [Peng, T., Cox, T.L., 2005. An economic analysis of the impacts of trade liberalization on Asian dairy market. Staff Paper No. 490, August, Department of Ag. & Applied Economics, University of Wisconsin-Madison. Available from: http://www.aae.wisc.edu/pubs/sps/pdf/stpap490.pdf]. This overview distills the findings of these investigations and integrates them in the existing economic literature (Earlier investigations include: on Asian patterns [Podbury, T., Ladlow, S., Roberts, I., Felton-Taylor, L., Chaimun, S., 1995. East and South East Asian dairy markets: Issues and Challenges. Australian Commodities Forecasts and Issues 2 (3), 340-357; Rae, A., 1997. Changing food consumption patterns in East Asia: implications of the trend towards livestock products. Agribusiness 13 (1), 33-44; Rutherford, A.S., 1999. Meat and milk self-sufficiency in Asia: forecast trends and implications. Agricultural Economics 21 (1), 21-39]; on Indonesia [Riethmuller, P., Chai, J., Smith, D., Hutabarat, B., Sayaka, B., Yusdja, Y., 1999. The mixing ratio in the Indonesian dairy industry. Agricultural Economics 20 (1), 51-56; Erwidodo, D., Trewin, R., 1996. The social welfare impact of Indonesian dairy policies. Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies 32 (3), 55-84], and more recently Barichello and Fabiosa [Barichello, R., 2005. Development of the Indonesian dairy industry: pitfalls and potentials. Mimeo, August. University of British Columbia; Fabiosa, J.F., 2005. Growing demand for animal-protein-source products in Indonesia: trade implications. CARD Working Paper 05-WP 400, July, Iowa State University, Ames, IA. Available from: http://www.card.iastate.edu/publications/DBS/PDFFiles/05wp400.pdf]; on Japan [Kawaguchi, T.N., Kaiser, H.M., 1997. A spatial equilibrium model for imperfectly competitive milk markets. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 79 (3), 851-859; Stroppiana, R., Riethmuller, P., Kobayashi, K., 1998. Regional differences in the Japanese diets: the case of drinking milk. Economic Analysis & Policy 28 (1), 85-102; Watanabe, Y., Suzuki, N., Kaiser, H.M., 1999. Predicting Japanese dairy consumption behavior using qualitative survey data. Agribusiness 15(1), 71-79]; on Korea [Song J., Summer, D.A., 1999. Dairy demand, supply and policy in Korea: potential for international trade. Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics 47 (5), 133-142] and on Thailand [Kehren, T., Tisdell, C., 1998. The Thai dairy industry: economic evolution and problems raised by land rights and cattle diseases. Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy 3 (1), 1-20]. See Fuller et al. [Fuller, F.H., Huang, J., Ma, H., Rozelle, S., 2005. Got milk? The rapid rise of China's dairy sector: factors behind the growth in demand and supply. CARD Working Paper 05-WP 394. Available from: http://www.card.iastate.edu/publications/DBS/PDFFiles/05wp394.pdf] for a review of the literature on China, which is much more recent.); it draws policy implications, and identifies lessons for countries outside of Asia.