CBO's labor force projections through 2021

Original publisher: [Washington, D.C.] : Congress of the U.S., Congressional Budget Office, [2011] OCLC Number: (OCoLC)708252947 Subject: Labor supply -- United States -- Statistics. Excerpt: ... Box 1. Continued Alternative Projections of Net Immigration growing. With both the gross inflow of " other " immigrants and shifts from " other " to legal permanent resident status constant, an increase in emigration implies a decline in net " other " immigration. Thus, total net immigration, estimated at 1.26 million in 2009, is projected by SSA to decline to 1.22 million in 2010, to 1.15 million in 2015, and to 1.13 million in 2020 under its intermediate assumptions. ( SSA's alternative projections for 2020 are about 325,000 lower under its high-cost scenario for Social Security and about 350,000 higher under its low-cost scenario. ) Other organizations ' projections give somewhat higher estimates of future net immi-gration. In 2008, the Census Bureau projected net immigration of 1.34 million in 31 Those figures were developed on the basis 2010, increasing to 1.49 million by 2021. of detailed projections of arrivals and departures of immigrants in four groups - people from Latin America; people from the non-Spanish-speaking Caribbean islands plus sub-Saharan Africa; people from South Asia, East Asia, Southeast Asia, and the Pacific islands; and people from Canada, Europe, Central Asia, and the Middle East. ( In 2009, the Census Bureau issued alternative projections of net immigration for 2021 of 1.28 million in the bureau's Low Net International Migration series and 1.74 million in its High Net International Migration series. ) Another approach to projecting net immigration is presented in a 2007 report to the 42 Social Security Advisory Board by the Technical Panel on Assumptions and Methods. That report concluded that, as the total U.S. population increases, so should the expected number of immigrants, in part because the demand for labor from immi-grants, along w...